Subscriber terminals, improved and modified to complete the first phase of its development - the "voice". Together with the whole mobile industry, this sector is entering an era of "data". Changes occurring in the infrastructure of the mobile communication systems, and as a result of new services and opportunities, could not help but reflect on those trends that are clearly visible in the guise of subscriber terminals. Technology GPRS - the first step in this direction - begins to exert a certain influence on the development of subscriber terminals.
Records and frustration
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Market subscriber terminals (AT) in recent years has developed rapidly, and seemed to trend growth, as predicted by authoritative experts as Cap Gemini Ernst & Young Telecom, will remain. However, the emerging for 2000 sales to AT 560 million was not implemented. According to estimates of the same agency, the actual sales of 430-450 million Despite the record, and these figures is an absolute record in the history of mobile communications, which ended the year was for the leaders is not very successful. This primarily refers to Ericsson, who was unable to achieve positive indicators, although sold 43.3 million of subscriber terminals. On this basis, Ericsson took a radical solution: a fully convey the production of mobile phones third companies - to their partners. It should be noted that, for some producers, especially Panasonic and Siemens, the year was a success - respectively 21.5 and 20.5 million (according to the Strategis Groups). Analyzing the quantitative indicators for the "voice" AT over the next 2-3 years is reasonable to predict the stabilization of the market against the backdrop of a recession. Massive sales of models that support the technology GPRS, will begin only in 2002 (30-40 million Durlacher Research). According to the London-based Ovum, in the next 2-3 years, worldwide sales of these models will be 500-600 million
More mobile phones good and different
If we talk about qualitative trends, we should first distinguish the saturation of the sophisticated features of low-cost models aimed at mainstream users. The fact that yesterday was to be found in models of business-class manufacturers are offering today in simple models. The most vivid example - Philips Savvy DB. In this unit, there are voice-activated dialing and vibrating alert. Thus, new capabilities and services are available to owners of inexpensive models, showing changes in the infrastructure of mobile communication systems. Conference calling, voice mail, not to mention the SMS, it's all available to most subscribers.
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Explanation is easy to find. It was mass production to reduce costs and allow subscribers to offer a wide range of batteries such as Li-Ion, connectivity kit Hands-Free and enhanced functionality. Another factor - the use of producers in the model class standard chipset (chipset). Thus, Siemens in the models of 35-series uses a set of E-Gold company Infineon. In this model, the senior class have advanced largely due to a software development. Almost all manufacturers in the business-class models have provided technology support WAP, which, however, is not so in demand, as predicted my colleagues in the shop a year ago. True, today they rushed to the other extreme, burying technology, meaning and purpose for which most commentators have remained unsolved (see "Modus", № 131, "WAP yesterday, today and tomorrow").
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Summarizing and evaluating the ways and trends, we can conclude that the peak drag miniaturization left behind - in 2000 summed up and determined the optimal size for the "voice" of AT. Someone from the producers changed the sense of proportion, and the market have been proposed products included in the category of "female". Such devices have a minimum size, but a set of numbers, not to mention a set text for SMS-messages, were a force of only fingers the better half of humanity. Many analysts in early 2000 predicted a rapid growth of the market with AT features Pocket PC, the so-called communicators and smartphones. From words to action first went Ericsson and Nokia. Swedish concern has proposed a model R380-based operating system Symbian, and Finnish - Model 9210 (OS EPOC 6.0, Symbian), further development of the range Nokia 9hhh. Here it is worth mentioning and innovations introduced Motorola. Structurally Communicator V100 is designed as a classic Pocket PC keyboard with full QWERTY keyboard and informative screen (the size of the active 45h28 mm). To work in phone mode, the device must be connected to a headset (headphones with microphone supplied). V100 via the serial interface can connect to a PC. V100 is focused mainly on the European market and is positioned as a device for young people. It was this audience the most extensive use of the service SMS.
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If market growth is due to AT recruits army of individual subscribers, the communicators and smartphones should attract fans of Pocket PC. Market latest rising sufficiently active, according to IDC, sales for 2000 amounted to 16 million units. So the prospects for the market of dual-use devices is beyond doubt, especially since the availability of suitable screen for the Internet and the size of the upcoming increase in the rate of data transmission networks can be a decisive argument. One of the trends emerging in the last year - the empowerment of the phone itself. If yesterday, considering the range of a company, you can only talk about voice and very rarely on the transmission / reception of data (using the AT as a GSM-modem), but now the picture begins to change. You can seriously talk about convergence, mobile phone and the various devices. Manufacturers have expanded the possibilities of equipment and provide consumers with devices that provide reception / data / fax numbers, e-mail, connect to the Internet-based technologies WAP. A number of models you can listen to MP3 files that identify your location (GPS) and even watch videos. Company Samsung, for example, has demonstrated a model SGH-M100. This dual-band (GSM-900/1800) phone that has 32 MB of memory and an MP3 stereopleer with playing time to 25 minutes. And it weighs 97 g! The device also has an IrDA port or can be connected to a PC via a serial interface. Another option of mobile phone offers Siemens. Model SL45 - dual-band phone (GSM 900 | 1800) luxury. Feature model - ability to connect external memory card type MMCard, which extends its functionality. Complete c unit you get a 32 MB card and stereo headphones. Pre-record your favorite tunes in MP3 format on the map, you can listen to the stereo for 35 minutes with the quality of CD. MM Card can also be used as a memory of a voice recorder, built-in SL45. Its volume is sufficient to record conversations for up to 5 hours.
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Another interesting novelty from the company Benefon. Model ESQ! - Truly a navigation phone. In addition to the many possibilities of dual-band GSM device it specifies the location of the subscriber, as well as movement speed, direction, mileage (Global Positioning System GPS, 12-channel receiver). Large graphic display (160x100 pix.) Provides the output to 20 lines of text, or display the location of the subscriber on the area map, which is pre-entered in the phone from a PC via the serial interface. On this same map indicator appears, denoting the location you wanted a subscriber network. A similar apparatus were presented by GARMIN, specializes in solutions in the field of GPS. She announced a new device NavTalk II - GSM-handset with a large graphic display and an integrated GPS-receiver.
GPRS expansion and conservatism of the market
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What are the AT will be offered to the subscriber in the future and what options he will choose them? What options the buyer will assess tomorrow, except for the price, weight and time of the battery? For customers who purchase a new phone in 2001-2002. To the fore can get the size and type of screen (large, color), multi-standard, such as CDMA / AMPS; connectivity QWERTY keyboard similar to the Pocket PC. As mentioned above, it is possible flourishing market of smartphones or communicators. It seems that this class of antibodies will dominate the corporate market, but an individual subscriber is still focused on simple and inexpensive model. Rather controversial opinion was expressed by the regional manager of Pyramid Group Daniel Torras: it assumes that the future border between cell phones, smart phones and pocket PCs will blur. But it is enough to compare the army of subscribers using mobile phone is not for business communication, and the number of users who use it "on paper". These two groups are simply not comparable in size, since among other things the phone can satisfy one of the major intellectual human needs - an opportunity to communicate. It is doubtful that the corporate sector has become dominant in the market AT. Whether the market will turn to the services (ie - to models), based on the technology of GPRS? Indeed, the widespread introduction of packet data will begin today or tomorrow, but the language does not turn to say that AT supporting the technology will be bought up like hotcakes. Whether most users will want, or at least every third literally throw his camera and get novyy.1 yet possible to ascertain the lack of interest of users to upgrade equipment. Consulting firm Yankee Group predicts that the average price AT with GPRS support in late 2001 at $ 200-230 with a projected average price of a standard phone $ 120-140. Assuming that these predictions will come true, the proposal for a specific sector of the market will be attractive. More confident we can speak about the prospects GSM-GPRS modems in the PC card or CompactFlash (for laptops and PDAs). Thanks to them, the Internet becomes truly mobile, and access to corporate applications both effective and safe. According to Martin Kampisha, director of the European branch of Motorola's work with the consumer sector, it is this class of GPRS-devices may be in the coming years the most popular. For example, the company Option at CeBit in Hanover presented a Globe Trotter, GPRS-modem in the PC-Card format for the networks GSM 900/1800/1900. The modem provides high speed internet access c any notebook computer equipped with a slot PC-Card Type II, and running an operating system MS Windows 98/2000.A similar device - GPRS-modem company announced CreditCard Xircom. It provides voice communication, the exchange of SMS-messaging and data exchange. In addition to GPRS last two years, hearing and other fancy technology - Bluetooth. It must provide a wireless connection of all electronic equipment in your office or home. Marketers are many companies felt it was time to incorporate Bluetooth modules and mobile phones. However, in this case, Bluetooth will follow in the footsteps of GPRS. Upon receiving information, it can be rapidly put into your PC or print. Obviously, the PC and the printer should also have modules Bluetooth. Therefore, for the widespread introduction of this technology should fulfill two conditions. Necessary - the development of mobile communication networks supporting GPRS, sufficient - Active Release module Bluetooth, built-in office and home appliances. So, Toshiba and 3COM have announced the release of Bluetooth modules in the format of PC-card. Do not fall behind and AT vendors. Ericsson announced the T39 model (GSM 900/1800), and Motorola - Timeport 270 (CDMA). However, in 2001, is likely to be abundant on the new items, rather than be a year of beginning mass production of models with Bluetooth.
Special path
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For Russia, the AT supporting GPRS may not be that magic wand that can partially solve the problem of last mile of the Russian telecom terrain. We have to admit that this problem - one of the key obstacles to penetration of the Internet in Russia (Moscow and 5-7 major cities do not count). Therefore, mobile operators, possibly without realizing it, can help an individual subscriber. First, is access to the Web in smaller settlements. What is the current actual speed access to dial-up mode in the suburbs of Moscow, the same Pushkin or Golitsino, most readers represent. With the removal of the capital access quality is deteriorating at an exponential rate. And it is in Moscow to talk about the Internet in more remote areas can only be in the subjunctive mood. Secondly, the cellular communication companies to offer their infrastructure for corporate information systems with distributed information sources. Connecting terminals fixed dostupa2 or GSM-GPRS-modems, the organization will be able to for 2-3 days to put into operation an effective system of data exchange. Thus, today the Russian cellular operators appear to compete with the prospect of Internet service providers. And the basic argument for this - GPRS. If marketers-Sotovik realize what instrument falls into their hands, will begin the real march on the Russian Internet spaces. Obviously, even the price will not stop an army of suffering - in the Russian provinces for residential customers an alternative yet in sight.
Market segmentation and new players
For the entire cellular industry and segment of AT in particular the transition to GPRS technology, even more than the stage - there is a qualitative leap forward, when the delivery of information to the subscriber in its significance is comparable to voice communications. The first question that faces manufacturers AT: What should be the proportion of devices with GPRS support in total? According to ARC Group, by the end of 2001 85% of European operators begin to provide packet. Given the forecast Durlacher Research in Europe, the services network to support GPRS in 2002, will use 25-30 million subscribers. Assuming that the market will be divided equally between the GPRS-modems and direct GPRS-terminals, we can estimate the actual volume of sales. Despite the stabilization of the market AT, solid-state technology leaders Texas Instruments and Analog Devices have announced integrated chips for mobile phones generation 2,5 G. However, manufacturers are not inclined to force the situation. So, according to the CEO of Nokia Jorma Ollila, release phone with GPRS support is transferred from the second quarter, at least on the third. Delivery model, Ericsson R520m, first presented in summer 2000, has not yet begun.Perhaps the reader will remember the situation that arose in the mid-90's, when the growing demand for AT was not satisfied, because of what the operators were losing and in the number of connections, and in the volume of traffic. But, according to analyst Pyramid Group Daniel Torres, now wiser, "insufficient salting" as to predict the migration to new technology is virtually impossible. Probably, the comparison with the situation mid-90's not so appropriate, because radically changed the playing field: an increasing number of operators have become more dense rows of vendors. The latter - one of the characteristic phenomena of 2000.
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The emergence of new players in this market is no accident. The rapid growth in subscriber numbers (ie - increase in sales volumes and the feasibility of mass production, always superrentabelnoe) - that's an argument that attracts sharks consumer electronics (Kenwood, Mitsubishi), and newly established companies, mainly from China and South- East Asia. For example, the company Sendo has launched to the European market dual-band (GSM 900/1800) model of business-class D800. By zyavleniyu vice president Sendo Leo Burhou, the company guarantees the supply of vehicles to the customer within 72 hours, whereas both major manufacturers to fulfill orders in 2-4 weeks. Such an aggressive policy add headache largest producers, is clearly not satisfied with the results of sales in recent quarters. One of the interesting aspects - determination of the regions most interested in AT and services of this class. According to the same Daniel Torres, the most likely breakthrough in Northern Europe and Southeast Asia, where there are four tigers: Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. No coincidence that new producers mainly come from the same region. True, Torres suggests that many, if not all, will depend on the operators, content providers and application developers that are designed to offer the consumer the specific services aimed at delivering information. As an example, recall the situation that arose a year ago with the technology of WAP. It is the lack of specific services and an erroneous shift in focus from corporate clients to individual operators drove almost to a standstill. Lessons of WAP, is likely to lead to the conclusion that the operators gave priority to developing applications. In order to convince the caller to the effectiveness of service delivery of information, will require considerable effort. For manufacturers of WAP terminals lessons should also be discussed. Requirements for the display settings, the duration of standby time, and some other characteristics should be formulated taking into account the peculiarities of the technologies GPRS, and the information that will be delivered to the subscriber. For example, a standby mode when you connect to GPRS technology differs significantly from a similar regime for the standard GSM, because permanent connection, the power consumption will be slightly higher and the battery must have higher capacity. If we talk about market segmentation, one of its important sectors - are young people. That she can claim the novelty of AT that will be created in the wake of GPRS-3G. There will be a litmus test of the above-mentioned model V100 from Motorola. If the symbiosis of a Pocket PC with headphone and microphone lovers will appreciate the SMS, namely young people, according to Gather Group, provides more than 80% of the traffic of short messages, while the prospects for this type of equipment more than favorable. Meanwhile, analysts forecasts. Thus, the Yankee Group report states that will determine the II-III quarter of next year - then the demand for antibodies with GPRS support will grow sharply. However, as such devices will look, what are their options - it is nobody dares to say exactly. At least today, according to Richard Duffy, manager of the ARC Group, it is difficult to say how much will be great interest to subscribers to the color display, high-power processors and other sites of AT to support GPRS. Apparently, the appearance of antibodies begin to form is popular applications. For example, the possibility of delivering multimedia content (audio / video), creates an attractive segment.For example, AT MP3 player Samsung SGH-M100 needs to preload favorite song. When you use GPRS any tune using the same WAP-terminal can be found and downloaded in real time. Of course, video conferencing, based on GPRS while unlikely - the first stage of the real rate of 30-40 kbit / s is clearly insufficient. But the size and quality of the image on the screen smartphone / communicator, in principle, it is quite acceptable for such applications. It remains to add a speakerphone and a video camera, available today for Pocket PCs, for example, type Casio JK-710DC, and video conferencing is becoming quite real. Further expands the capabilities of enterprise applications. Video surveillance system will monitor the on-screen smartphone and the protected zone as a whole, and each specific site. The medical establishment of the database the results of ultrasound or X-ray examination of the patient may be transferred to the screen of the same smartphone in the hands of a doctor who came to the challenge to the patient home. However, the popularity of such models will be largely determined by their price. Most likely, 2001 will not be a breakthrough in the dissemination of the AT with support GPRS, but vendors and operators will have to come to terms with the fact that the devices are difficult to control, overwhelmed by technical innovations, and most users do not even need. As they say, each vegetable one time ... Sources, Materials:
