Group SmartMarketing held a unique survey of the Russian market of handhelds (PDAs) and presented a forecast of sales in 2002 ...
The main trend of the sector is determined by the heightened expectations for sales in the IV quarter of 2002. What does "increased expectations of sales in the IV quarter of 2002? Is this refers to the Christmas sales, which by the usual statistics are 2-3 times the average annual cover? In that case why they are called the main trend of the sector? Probably there is some error. Allow me to disagree. If the main trend and there is, then it is something else, but more on that later. Buyers are becoming actively interested in this product category, the expected sharp rise in sales in the IV quarter of 2002 related to the natural processes of growth, developed from technical progress, the processes of diversification of product families, lower prices and other factors. Along with this market there is considerable pent-up demand in magnitude, so that, according to the group SmartMarketing, with a probability of 85% of sales could surpass the bar in the 100 000 units. Score of 100 000 units per year seems much too high. Our forecast - from 40 to 50 thousand units per year in Russia. Our conclusions are based on accurate information about our sales, the approximate information about our market share, received from the producers of the CCP, and indirect information about the amount of "gray" import. If the estimate of 100 000 units does not refer to Russia and the CIS, it does not change too much, because the PDA market in the rest of the CIS combined 10 times smaller than Russia's. In line with expectations, with a probability of 78%, 27% of sales will be in IV quarter. This assertion makes no sense. Let us explain. If you specify the probability of an event (78%), then this event may correspond to only getting a continuous parameter in some interval (for example, 27-30%%). Thus, we find that the likelihood that sales will be exactly equal to 27% can not differ from zero. (See textbooks on probability theory.) According to the results of IV quarter of 2002, the leader in market share will remain PDA platforms Palm, with a probability of more than 80% of them have 45% of the market. Family PocketPC with a probability of more than 80% take 40% of the market, Casio Pocket Viewer - 10% (with a probability of more than 80%), Nokia 9210 - 3% and Psion - 2%. Information about sales on the results of 2002 with price bars is contained in the full report of SmartMarketing. Again, that referred to the probability of execution of such a prediction simply meaningless. However, the assessments themselves with a few exceptions almost identical to our figures are regularly published on www.hpc.ru. Significant difference only in the fact that the CCP Casio Pocket Viewer can not belong to 10%. These models are no longer manufactured, and in 2002 Russia was not delivered. The stores, really, "stuck" for a number of these devices, but they do not sell in a hurry, because after the launch Casio Cassiopeia BE-300 absolutely can not stand competition. According to our estimates, by mid-2002 to capture a picture of the Russian market of operating systems look like this:
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The most promising models
With probability of more than 60% of sales in their respective segments will lead the following models and the family:
- The family of Sony CLIE, whose popularity is due to the reputation of brands Sony, and outstanding technical characteristics of the devices Series CLIE when compared with devices from other manufacturers Palm, including the original models of Palm. Will contribute and breadth of product line, as well as a wide range of quotations in this segment. Risk factors for the devices of the group associated with the price indices of competing models of devices PocketPC. With probability of more than 80%, the share of the family CLIE have up to 68% of sales of all devices Palm. With the last sentence can not argue, to understand it formally. Our assessment of the proportion of families among CLIE PalmOS devices is 25-27%, which, strictly speaking, too, up to 68%. Sony activity is very high, but credited it to the leaders of this sector of the market is premature. The fact that so far all Sony Clie deliveries to Russia are going through the American and European distributors. Russian office of Sony these products are not supported. Branded Service Centers Sony CLIE devices do not serve, the money for marketing purposes are not allocated. All this severely limits the prospects of the CCP in the Russian market in 2002, this situation does not seem to change.
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Least promising models
With probability of more than 50% of these models have a chance to lose its market position:
- IPAQ 3800/3900. The main risk factor that creates a tendency to negatively impact the sales of HP iPAQ in the IV quarter of 2002 due to the fallout of these models of price niche, given their technical equipment. Traditional, strong side iPAQ, which consists of high-quality screen-based technologies reflective TFT (in models 3800) and transflective TFT (3,900) does not compensate for the price gap of $ 280-320, especially considering the increasing competitiveness of the segment. According MakTsentr, HP iPAQ - the absolute market leader in 2002, therefore, to consider this model unpromising wrong.H3970 model retails for $ 700, which is only 40-60 dollars more expensive than the nearest competitor - Toshiba e740 and the Pocket Loox. Price gap at 280-320, there is only, when compared with the iPAQ H3970 RoverPC P6, but such a bold comparison to very few people come to mind. According to our data, the proportion among iPAQ WindowsCE devices close to 55%. By not covsem clear why the study did not mention the other models, highly visible in the market: Cassiopeia E-200, Sassiopeia BE-300, Mitac Mio 528 and NEC Mobile Pro P300E. 300 BE-monopoly is a niche low-end, because the other characteristics similar to the CPC for $ 200 to buy it is impossible. The remaining three of the above models have similar harakteristitkami and together can qualify for 15-20% of the market WindowsCE devices. The above report of the study group SmartMarket we have in summary form in the free newsletter. Fully it can be seen here. For more information (probably not free) can be obtained by contacting the experts at: info@smartmarketing.ru. As discussed numbers always carry a greater degree of subjectivity, we will be very happy if other experts will also share their information on the issues raised. To learn more about the situation on the Russian market, PDA, its trends, and forecasts from MakTsentr can be found in the report on our press conference, held last week. The authors, translation:
Dmitry Havzhu