Let us recall how it all began
In the mid-90s, when mobile communication established in the telecommunications market and began to attract not dozens, but thousands of subscribers, it became obvious that, by analogy with a wired connection to the subscriber can be offered by the data service. At first, as these were considered classical applications. This opened a new service operational delivery of information in the mobile sector telecommunications market, allowing operators to predict the increase in traffic. In the first stage when connecting a desktop or laptop PC features the role of CT was limited to a modem. However, history would have it, the explosive demand for mobile communications has coincided with the beginning of the expansion of the Internet across countries and continents. Thus, the idea of going online with your mobile phone in the air and was quickly implemented. Follows quite naturally, a step the major players in this sector of the market had hoped to offer as a service to Internet access directly from the CT, which thus becomes a mobile terminal. However, in the presence of tiny screen and limited memory capacity and processor standard WEB-page on the screen in a readable form of CT could not be located. Initiators of active promotion of Data Services - equipment manufacturers that did not stop. They used a standard marketing procedure - proposed technology (WAP), which was to be convincingly presented as the operators and subscribers. Assessing the funds invested for this time in an advertising technology company, with implicit consumer sprosom1, one could argue that while it has a key role. Operators, in anticipation of explosive growth in traffic, similar to wired networks, readily joined in this game, hoping to increase revenue with minimal investment. But the producers were significantly sagacious - WAP at a rate of 9.6 kbps is limited demand. Therefore, subscribers and operators to improve the access speed will have to buy new equipment, the first terminals, a second infrastructure elements, both programmatic and apparatnye2. True understanding of the operators, and the more subscribers come much later. In the meantime, the industry began to untwist marketing flywheel. That's already got the first microbrowser (WAP-browser), it suggested that an American company Unwired Planet, then Phone.Com. In 1997, the company became one of the founders of the Association of WAP Forum, whose main objective was the introduction of WAP as an industry standard. During its development has been tasked to deliver interactive information to mobile terminals. "We look at WAP, as a great opportunity to provide the user with access to a wide range of services and information," said at the beginning of 1999 Ian Germer, vice president of Vodafone's marketing. However, the fate of WAP from childhood was not easy. This is due to the contradictions of the world for mobile communications (minimization in all directions) and the world of the Internet, whose content is always complicated. Note that only in May 1999, Microsoft announced its accession to the WAP-Forum, reluctantly, reluctantly teeth (remember the MS Pocket Internet Explorer for Windows CE-compatible handheld PC) 3. An update is likely the first commercial version of WAP 1.1 was introduced in June 1999 and has been singing analysts and experts. At the beginning of 1999 were published by research company Strategy Analytics, who argued that the demand for CT, supporting WAP, will grow like mushrooms after rain. Then, in 1999, clearly warming up interest in the market, "independent" experts suggested this assessment: "By 2003, only in the U.S. and Western Europe the number of mobile terminals that are compatible with the specification of WAP, will reach 525 million." They were echoed by Chuck Parrish, vice president of WAP-forum: "In the third or fourth quarter of 1999 we will witness the beginning of the triumphal march of products and ST compatible with WAP-technology." And a sweet couple has formed - the manufacturers have joined the operators who dreamed increase traffic naturally through WAP.The Poor WAP-e Say a Word
Today, the number of optimists reduced. Since the company Cahners In-Stat Group believes that Wi-WEB enjoyed mostly for news and stock quotes, as most WAP-pages of subscribers are not actively being downloaded. Experts and analysts who foretold the success of WAP in 2001-2002, forced to postpone a favorable forecasts for more distant times. Judging by the report, Frost & Sullvan (code 3665), the total income of the sector data mobile users in 2005 could reach 15.6 billion dollars Experts Nokia is even more optimistic - in the middle of the decade on the planet will be more than 1 billion mobile subscribers, and much of it will have mobile terminals with multimedia capabilities. Thus, the favorable forecasts and a cold shower today. As acknowledged by Scott Goldman, chief executive officer WAP Forum, "... we reached the top of disappointment, and now comes to consumer awareness of reality." Indeed, on one hand the speed of content delivery is clearly insufficient, but "in the 3G speeds, most users do not absolutely necessary." Since the expert said Frost & Sullivan, Jan Rolands. Market sector, which has so far conquered WAP, small, and in Russia just microscopic. However, European operators are not even the first series - Eurotel Praha, Polish PlusGSM provide connectivity protocol WAP, in Slovakia, Eurotel has implemented electronic payment system based on WAP v 1.1. In Western Europe, is clearly a trend decline in interest mobile network operators to provide WAP-services. As long as mobile subscriber data delivery service as a no interest, adequate advertising of the wave that lifted the media to "request" of equipment manufacturers. Today, the media rushed to the other extreme - WAP, is represented as a fresh-baked, but totally unfit for human consumption pie. Mobile Internet unpopular; stillborn WAP ", etc. headlines are filled with pages of publications competing for the role of experts in the field of telecommunications. In fact, with the hype around WAP - overdone, "merit" in this and the equipment manufacturers and operators and service providers. It is their assessment and opinions zombie most analysts and experts. But the point here is not limited speeds. Subscribers understand that WAP was not meant to replace the HTML-based Internet and PC. Its market niche for the mass subscriber is limited to: text information (today) and a range of financial services (in the future). For example, MTS in early 2000 formally planned that the results of I quarter the number of subscribers who have paid for the service WAP, to reach 15000. In reality this figure the company could only be achieved by year end. In addition to the absence of CT, with support for WAP, for subscribers was not prepared an adequate content, which is not even close to lying to the Internet classic. It's time to admit that the possibility of WAP over limited, most likely, this is a small part of the services of cellular networks 3G. Let's not forget about the cost of on-line minutes. But insolvency WAP as a technology to speak, at least, premature. Firstly, it is a baby who has just got to his feet. Like any high-tech product, it will take time enough to remember the history notebooks, cameras - is the opinion of one of the leaders of Scott Goldman, WAP Forum. Today this baby more than 170,000 nurses and caregivers. Programmers of many companies create business applications (e-mail access, databases and inventories, etc.), entertainment (games, chat rooms ...), location services (advice on the shortest path, taking into account actual road conditions) and of course products for applications such as E-commerce, e-billing. If we speak objectively, the number of WAP-applications today is quite in demand. First, work with e-mail. For example, technology Lexicos based on WAP is available with interfaces such as Java, HTML and the "Handheld". At present, access to WAP-CT provide well-known portals such as Yahoo, SkyGo, Airflash. What is available to subscribers? First of all news channels, the economy, and sports. Information sections: the weather, entertainment, calendar of plane / train, the service "yellow pages". Well-known Russian WAP-portals note wap.aport.ru company Agam. Its search engine performs Aport WAP-search - perhaps to find the desired site. Created a search engine wapmap.com, the developer - a German company metascout.com.To search the network owner of CT is to type the appropriate Web-address where there is a search engine. In 2000, WAP-Forum adopted the specification WAP v 1.2 - now has a "Push" technology, and subscriber authentication, and is available 128 bit or higher encryption key. The latest specification extends the capabilities of the WAP service in the field of finance. In this direction work, and manufacturers. Nokia and Ericsson with the support of Hewlett-Packard and IBM have entered into with Visa Int. agreements on the development of a secure payment system using CT - should be developed "mobile e-wallet." Release of CT that support this version is scheduled for mid-2001, other sectors - mobile advertising on the basis of WAP today are not as attractive (advertising revenue minimum). Modern multi-media online advertising requires data rates of 100 kb / s, and text advertising today seems archaic. And if the European experts expect a growth of activity in this sector in 2002 (linking it with the introduction of networks 3G), then Russia's mobile advertising, the prospect of a more distant, and yet so real. The introduction of WAP, and put the question of the effectiveness of tariffs. How to pay for the WAP-connection? If initially assumed tariff adopted by Kbytes, and is today considered a classic time-based scheme, as well as options for a monthly fee with unlimited WAP-access. And yet today, WAP is the first very imperfect version of the services for 3G. It may be objected that there is a striking success online service in Japan (NTT DoCoMo - i-Mode). However, Internet users, for the first time almost colliding with WAP, experienced as doubt and disappointment. The sheer quality of services - a moot point, do not forget about the defective graphics. Shroud of luxury PR-promises subsides and the reality is considerably more modest - a black and white text mode brings us back to the era of the Internet the primary, which most fans of modern web did not even know. Leif Persson, Director of Research Center Intel's wireless technology, commenting on the first year of life WAP, suggested that: "those who sought to sell WAP, as mobile Internet, were in a stupid position. User immediately realized that the PC and ST are designed to address various problems ". He believes that WAP will be useful for working with voice mail, and compare the prices of goods in the neighboring stores. A main conclusion is obvious - for mass subscriber WAP until claimed. It is extremely important that in parallel with developing WAP and other technologies. Today is a real competitor WAP, especially in the U.S., this technology is Web-clipping. True it may be used only by owners of Palm-compatible handhelds. A lot of hope as operators and content providers associated with an increase in band mobile channel. But the transition to 2.5G technology is one aspect. Subscribers and corporations, today, acquiring CT supporting WAP, the majority are unaware that for high speeds have to purchase a new CT (for example, work on the technology of GPRS). Obviously, the informed callers while waiting. I note that to ensure proper service from the operators will require additional investment, and considerable.It's time to rethink the WAP-application?
It seems the main issue to be solved now WAP-industry - "Who are aimed WAP-services?". For the mass user or corporate customer? If at first base rate was made on an individual subscriber, and only in the long term corporate goals were considered, the situation has changed. And the marketers and developers have come to the conclusion that the main role of WAP - the basis for implementing enterprise-oriented applications to exchange data with mobile terminals. Probably, the main consumer of this sector - the corporate market business. That is where will appreciate the mobile data transfer: Here and Now. WAP at higher speeds will successfully used it in the enterprise applications - then users will quickly adapt to new technology, since immediately appreciate its main advantages: a simple, quick access to exactly the data that are needed. But today, most applications, it is the standard WEB-applications that are adapted to wireless technologies. And only a small part designed to meet the "Wireless" - a mobile philosophy.That's why most of the applications so far are not specific to WAP. Both operators and service providers should realize that WAP is nothing more than a software interface that allows owners of PT have access to various applications, in particular to the WEB-server. Obviously, there are mobile applications, which, by their nature are different from applications sold on the PC. "The point is not in the data transmission capabilities, but the ability to run business applications from a remote device" - an opinion of Scott Bloomfield, president of Centura Software, has visited Moscow in the summer of 2000, he believes that if you have static content, using WAP is inappropriate. But if the business process is built on dynamic content, WAP will implement an operational mode. The notion of mobile media - not just getting data to the mobile terminal, but, conversely, with the help of a mobile terminal to transmit data to the processing center, or to another mobile terminal. Bloomfield and Scott is convinced that mobile information - that is, information of business processes. But the main problem is that it's time to turn the paradigm upside down - Pocket PC, ST, and software is only a means to change the psychology of the most important task today, people involved in business processes with mobile data. Of course, mobile data - a new market sector. His potential customers - logistics, service delivery, etc. Apparently WAP can provide dynamic control of data, which is why the organization of services is reasonable to identify this class of data, delays in the receipt of which may give rise to production problems. Naturally the individual user, such information does not work. Thus, the model should be created to cover different groups of corporate clients. However, most standard software for the synchronization of mobile terminals do not know how, since the establishment has been focused on the individual subscriber. New technology based on WAP will change the business process itself. Probably this is one of the areas where no alternative WAP prove its necessity. Success will come to a WAP only when application service providers come to understand that this is a new way of building business processes and offer new, just-focused services. Many experts are beginning to realize it. So, senior analyst Tim Sheedy says IDC: Mobile Internet, it is not GPRS, UMTS, WAP, but it is those applications that use these services. Moreover, until there is mobile applications, services, third-generation will be redundant. " Funny, but all these applications share a common condition - the desktop PC today for their implementation is useless. New business models need to compensate, but rather to eliminate the contradictions of the world of mobile and Internet world. For Internet users, accustomed to the rich multimedia content, familiarity with the WAP was the revelation experienced by the modern motorist when visiting the museum's auto technology, which displays "Victory" and "Emka. Another feature - the specificity of CT compared with the PC. So for the subscriber simply select from a menu what type it on a keyboard similar to the PC. An optimal application with all the "little things", to ensure its scalability with respect to the subscriber terminal - only under this condition the user to quickly learn and begin to actively enforce a particular product. Appropriate to recall the report in London research firm OVUM. Its authors have formulated for WAP-business the following recommendations. Intensive to implement new applications and services, consider a system of payment for the transaction, and in some cases to determine the fee for connection to the portal, to find effective methods of advertising and e-commerce. Indeed, the issue of charging of WAP-services is one of the key. For example, Eurotel (Czech Republic) introduced two time-based rate: 3.3 and 1.0 CZK depending on time of day. However, for business, as opposed to an individual subscriber to the forefront the problems of security and confidentiality. At first, WAP does not provide secure transactions, which is necessary for transmission of confidential information and for use in CT systems, e-commerce. At present, WAP has certain security features based on technology WTLS (Wireless Transaction Layer Security), based on a standard protocol TLS, WIM (Wireless Identification Module), and supporting public key infrastructure (PKI).So the company Jinny (www.jinny.ie) offers a gateway based on WTLS, which provides protection at the level of Class 3 and 128-bit encryption. About the versions WAP v 1.2 and its possibilities, we have already mentioned. In the active work on creating business applications with WAP support for corporate clients including companies that specialize in the production of software. So the company Lotus, a member at IBM, in 1999 spoke of creating software to support mobile users. As part of the company Lotus Mobile Notes offers a solution - Domino Everyplace Quick Start, which allows enterprises using products such as Domino and Notes, to provide access to their mobile employees and customers to corporate and personal information with CT, which supports WAP. Everyplace Quick Start allows you to create and define the content of individual mobile portal. Subscribers may e-mail, personal calendar, to-do list, address book. The user can also connect any application to your Domino server, mobile portals. Further expand opportunities for access to information from mobile devices, if the Domino server is connected to relational databases and ERP-systems. The family of servers, Lotus Domino Everyplace also includes Domino Everyplace Sync Server, which enables mobile users to synchronize data stored on the Domino server with wireless devices running on platforms Win CE, Palm OS and others. Domino Everyplace Enterprise Server will create business applications for mobile terminals. Novell partnership with Syclo developed Info Manager for GroupWise, which provides wireless access to WAP-store messages. Same Nokia offers WAP-server, aimed at the corporation, or the operator. Naturally, in the way of enterprise applications, a barrier, sometimes very specific. Since WAP-browser installed in different CT manufacturers are not universal. Naturally, each WAP applications offered on the market, should be tested on all models that support WAP. Can do it only for big companies and makes mass production applications. In this issue, there is an obvious way out - set in the NT software known manufacturer. Along this route came Benefon, which has equipped its new product - a model of business-class Q is MS Mobile Explorer. Incidentally the latter supports both WAP, and HTML.WAP with a Russian accent
Domestic WAP primarily Moscow and St. Petersburg. For example, WAP-site of the "Bee Line" contains a dozen chapters. Project leader BEELINE-WAP Sergei Donchenko states: "Attendance of our WAP-site is growing rapidly. So the average number of hits for November amounted to 34,352." But the most popular (26.3%) in the second section, where the subscriber is a fresh anecdote. A financial unit site has minimal traffic. Among the reasons for potentially low demand for WAP in Russia, noting:- Is extremely limited and little solvent audience WAP-subscribers;
- Lack of interest among small and medium-sized businesses, the main WAP-investment of 50 - 100 grains of companies;
- An acute shortage of competent managers WAP-projects;
- A paradox, but lack of experience of WAP-investors. But there are general problems. The first imperfection of the legislation, for example, a transaction made through the electronic exchange is not considered legitimate. Not regulated by the responsibility for providing / not providing the information confidential. Tax policy for electronic banking, electronic payments are not fixed by law. For the full development of mobile applications in Russia need to adopt a series of laws on electronic commerce, especially the electronic digital signature (EDS). It is also important that Russia lacks the physical infrastructure for the same mobile commerce. Unlike the West, where for many years there have been various service delivery systems, orders of goods over the phone, etc. we are only beginning to develop this type of service. Naturally, there is no culture of interaction with such systems, there is no army of users who appreciate the convenience of these particular services. Today it is difficult to say whether both content profitable projects or efficiency can be expected only where the work begins to mobile commerce.It is very important, will show whether the WAP investment bank's interests and not the "wild" venture capital, not speculators, and serious domestic foundations and corporations. It is not clear whether the WAP, as successor to the Internet to become a global industry, or an inheritance - local, regional framework as a set of localized information. More problematic to predict the state policy in respect of WAP-services will be whether the state regulation of WAP-business. So even for the Internet is difficult to predict the appearance soon formulated the doctrine of state of Russia in the field of legal and financial regulation. But that it may be the enzyme, which is so necessary today, the domestic government officials, decision makers at the level of direct business. Looking for those laws that demand on the market: the digital signature, intellectual property protection and the protection of private information. This triad - a necessary condition for the growth of electronic and mobile commerce in particular. These bills will be adopted in 2001, and the foundation will be laid. Russian corporate market WAP-services, except for a number of pilot projects, while in its infancy. Companies have neither the experience nor the resources. Demand from major customers so far is minimal, and many experts are skeptical, arguing that while such projects in Russia has not yet come. Realizing that the development cycle, implementation of such systems is many months, it is difficult to expect any revolutionary changes. While for each client will not start a real war movement in this market sector is unlikely. Apparently, the only real line of work - is the creation of systems of interaction with customers, but even here we must note that the culture of work with clients at a level of Russian companies do not. Perhaps the breakthrough will come when the application starts implementing customer relationship management (CRM - customer relationship management) to support voice functions. But this is far from tomorrow. I think that will have to re-examining already existing systems and portals. Many of them will be either closed or seriously reworked. I do not want to offend fellow in the shop, but the WAP as the technology has experienced an era of "hugs", which gradually developed into a stranglehold. And the main reason is that public information remains deplorable. Therefore, most publications is speculative or openly advertising. Blame as the media, and companies that slip gullible reporters outright misinformation. But the noise died down, the euphoria is over and those who yesterday sang Aliluyya today are not very comforting to render a final verdict.
Clouds on the horizon WAP?
Yet today the development of products that support WAP, is not the answer to market demands, rather it is marketing, so-called vanguard fighting for the occupation of key heights. However, owners of several WAP-portalov/saytov going to invest heavily to create content and services that target the new protocol. For example, the U.S. Sprint has deployed more than 60 WAP sites. And to determine the real return on investment is not possible, because WAP-services and portals that appear on the market, the products are entirely new. It is worth remembering the founder of Sony, Akio Morita: "with regard to the novelty give estimates and projections with high reliability can not be." While expectations of operators, content providers and businesses are not realistic. But Forrester Research report claims that flowering of mobile Internet in Europe will come no earlier than 2005, when more than 50% of Europeans will begin to use mobile data transmission, or at least the mobile communication channels to access the web. Perhaps today is a WAP WEB 5-6 years ago. Electronic mobile commerce (M-commerce) - possibly the sector on demand WAP. Studies show that in 2003 the volume of M-commerce in Western Europe is 20 - 30 billion euros. For those who believe M-commerce market is a key part of E-business should listen to Bill Loomis, analyst, Legg Mason Wood Walker - "I believe that significant revenues this market will bring in only a few years." If over the fate of a number of market sectors most experts do not match, then the prospects for WAP-advertising business, they are unanimous. I think the final verdict - distribution of advertising among the owners of CT is problematic, even in the presence of thematic lists on which option to subscribe.The volume of advertising in WAP version will be limited. One option - the success of WAP at a rate not to PT, and on Pocket PC (PDA), devices on the platform of the Palm or Symbian c WAP-browser type REVO + (company Psion). Mobile office based on the PDA screen as an alternative to microscopic ST. Manager, Psion, Marc Rich, believes that the market for mobile data access will be focused mainly on the Pocket PC. Experts firm OVUM suggest that by 2006, regardless of the fate of WAP in the world will be 1.5 billion mobile subscribers!, Of which about 680 million will be connected to the Internet. But today, the fixed-line connection to the Internet connects about 500 million, and there is stabilization of the demand for this service. Recorded an outflow of Internet users - is not positive momentum investors WAP. Nevertheless, analysts OVUM suggest that the total revenue from mobile subscribers using microbrowser, ie connected to the Internet in 2006 will amount to 337 billion dollars on the other hand, the market is clearly waiting. With the current speed of your connection to the Internet (for GSM -9.6 kb / s) of the WAP service is not as claimed. When switching to technologies that provide higher speed (for GSM, it is GPRS (up to 115 kb / s) will require replacement by a new ST, which supports the technology. So today, consumers are likely WAP did not seek to refocus its business on wireless connection. Some experts believe that the increase in rates - the expansion of the channel strip - it's still not the platform. Jane Zweig, vice president of Hercules Shosteck Associates believes that as the rate for wireless WAP will not be able to meet the requirements of users. But, for example, Alan Carter, Vice President of Infinite Technologies (Software Vendor) believes that WAP, WML, GPRS, UMTS - is the base for building the mobile Internet. IDC forecasts in 2004 is expected to 1.3 billion connections based on WAP, - this is clearly an optimistic forecast. But analysts London-based company OVUM forecasts moderate growth in the market: 322 million holders of PT microbrowser. But their main conclusion - in the next 3 years will have developed a new XML-technology, which actually replaces WAP. They believe that WAP technology has flaws, and as soon as mobile network will come at a high speed transmission of information will come to the fore more and more sophisticated technology. They will be required by the market. But Scott Goldman believes that WAP will evolve with the communication channels. Today, those players (including operators) that operate in this sector will have to make serious efforts before customers believe in the effectiveness of services based on WAP. Thus, even a broad introduction to GPRS, apparently, will not be the booster module, which displays the WAP into a new orbit. It is ironic, but increase the channel capacity of mobile communication will become a catalyst for creating a new level language for mobile applications. The increase in the rate of delivery of content to be attractive pocket PC with a large color screen that supports full multimedia content. So, in the next 3 - 4 years to replace the WAP technology will come new generation based on XML. But today the W3C Extensible Markup published specification language Basic, which recommended manufacturers of mobile devices connected to the WEB. This is a step towards the WAP Forum, working to create a second version of the standard (expected in mid-2001). By application of the same Scott Goldman, WAP Forum moved to XHTML, but WAP will provide backward compatibility. It should be a transition to the use of extensible markup technologies for mobile devices, based on the protocol TCP. Another alternative, the emergence of portals based on the new language of Compact HTML (cHTML ). In this case, the mobile Internet has language that allows converters to delete WAP-based WML. As soon as the developed cHTML-compatible browsers, users of Pocket PCs will have mobile Internet. One of the first of the works in this direction the company announced Openwave. She has released a new version of the browser's Mobile Browser - Universal Edition supports xHTML, WML, and cHTML. Note that cHTML not yet been adopted as a standard. In turn, the company relies on the Palm WEB-clipping, clearly departing from the WAP.****It is obvious that the WEB and wireless technologies are not opposed, but WAP is not the whole wireless world. WAP as a tool to access the Internet with mobile communications has not yet proven its effectiveness. Probably depends on the fate of WAP market demand for applications for individual and corporate clients. Maybe not so bad, it is worth recalling the stages of implementation of SMS, which was claimed as a Service subscribers only 2 years after its launch.
- According to marketing agencies, data transmission in mobile networks will be in demand of 5-10% of subscribers.
- Naturally, investments were made not only in marketing but also in the development of new systems (GPRS, EDGE, 3G).
- In 1999, most analysts believed that MS as always strives to offer its own approach, but the industry's most preferred the WAP. Therefore, MS is preparing a path of retreat. But today, when the Pocket PC-based Pocket PC (software is included in the MS Pocket Internet Explorer) are beginning to crowd the market Palm-s, we understand that the Gates team once again outperforms the competition.
- Sadly, but on improving the quality of information circulating in the expert community can not count.
Alexander Korsunsky